July 1, 2008

Peak Miley?

7 comments:

Pomeroy Kinsey said...

These peak Miley controversy is total nonsense. First of all, if you reference my work on this, you'll see that the critics have cherry-picked the worse estimates to support their pessimistic point of view. Using a more conservative discount rate, my models show Miley being able to perform easily into her early thirties, and under certain restrictive assumption, her mid thirties. But secondly, you peak Miley critics tend to forget that technological advances are extending the life of Miley's past work, so I don't see the problem

j said...

Listen you're missing the point. No, you've made the point for me, "Miley being able to perform easily into her early thirties . . . her mid thirties." Heck, I'll give you her mid forties when she re-appears as a hot milf on a CW sitcom raising her own daughter, Mason Dakota, to be a "normal" teen pop star and amidst all the hijinks sure to ensue. The point is that Miley is finitie. Let me repeat, Miley is not an infinite resource. We will run out of Miley! (And don't even get me started on how expensive it is to get anything out of Miley these days - the days of cheap, conventional Miley production are ALREADY over) The longer that we as a nation hitch ourselves to an inevitably limited entertainment resource the sooner we find ourselves wandering around the non-fiction shelves at our public library. What are we doing now to invest in alternative resources. Our mindless Miley dependence continues to siphon desperately needed r and d money from Zach and Cody, Sammi Hanratty, Ashley Tisdale, or the G-Girlz. The days of having "a solution" are over we need a plethora of resource options because if you think the demand for Miley emerging from China and India is bad now . . . you just wait. You don't have to be a peak Miley critic, I'm just asking you to be a peak Miley realist!

JAM said...

This is a bunch of hogwash. If there was any credibility to this, Rachael Ray would have dried up and blown away by now.

Pomeroy Kinsey said...

My model shows that as we approach peak Miley, the marginal cost of extracting the next unit of entertainment out of Miley will be equal to the next best alternative, at which point we as a society will transition to that other form of entertainment. Since we are not yet transitioning out of Miley, we must not be at peak Miley, and thus I'm not worried.

Interestingly, in my model, we will never extract the last unit of entertainment from Miley, because as you point out in your post, Miley's entertainment has rising marginal costs of extraction. So, at some point, when we do transition to the more expensive forms of entertainment, we'll actually leave some of the more difficult to appreciate entertainment of Miley in the ground. So, for instance, probably we'll transition out of Miley before she begins to do more serious, dramatic acting.

j said...

normally I would agree with you but i think the case of peak Miley has some factors at play that most models can't or don't account for. For one, Big Miley. Big Miley is totally invested in our continued dependence upon Miley and therfore actively working against the "next best alternative form of entertainment." What happens when Miley runs out, we change the channel and find nothing but old reruns of Frasier and Mad About Your? What happens when there are no alternatives? We're not transitioning out of Miley because there is nothing to transition to, not because we shouldn't be.

Pomeroy Kinsey said...

lol. Okay, you win. Big Miley I cannot respond to.

j said...

good, because I was beginning to forget what we were talking about!

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