I'm not watching the VP debate, again, its the ancillary that interests me when it comes to politics. And so far Intrade thinks Palin is getting the job done as the odds for her to be withdrawn have dropped almost 2 points since the debate began and almost 3 on the day:
Update: One last glance at Intrade before turning in and Palin is down another point or two. Looks like she's done well enough to stop the Eagleton talk, good for her, but there doesn't appear to be any movement either way on the big board.
2 comments:
In some ways, it's seeing that there's contracts on VP withdrawal that have positive prices, and a contract on Hilary becoming President well after she'd lost the primary, that has made me a bit more suspicious of inTrade's reliability than I usually am. I just feel like this is and has been all along easy money. No way is McCain going to pull her. She singlehandedly breathed fresh life into his campaign, with her warts and all. He had to know that by picking her he was picking someone who had strengths and weaknesses, and those weaknesses were fully internalized well before he made the pick. That is, if you believe politicians are rational anyway.
.. but I guess that is what is meant by things being a low probability event. Is it impossible that he withdraw her? Of course not. Is it improbable? Yes. Which is why it's priced in the single digits. Even at 15%, that's still like saying "this will probably never happen."
Post a Comment