tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14870358.post1986718628143090868..comments2024-02-21T11:13:05.339-05:00Comments on The Meaningfulness of Little Things: Sometimes Good Enough . . .Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14870358.post-18667270015685666832008-10-03T10:00:00.001-04:002008-10-03T10:00:00.001-04:00.. but I guess that is what is meant by things bei..... but I guess that is what is meant by things being a low probability event. Is it impossible that he withdraw her? Of course not. Is it improbable? Yes. Which is why it's priced in the single digits. Even at 15%, that's still like saying "this will probably never happen."scott cunninghamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03029667343447086401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14870358.post-84063875589763730542008-10-03T10:00:00.000-04:002008-10-03T10:00:00.000-04:00In some ways, it's seeing that there's contracts o...In some ways, it's seeing that there's contracts on VP withdrawal that have positive prices, and a contract on Hilary becoming President well after she'd lost the primary, that has made me a bit more suspicious of inTrade's reliability than I usually am. I just feel like this is and has been all along easy money. No way is McCain going to pull her. She singlehandedly breathed fresh life into his campaign, with her warts and all. He had to know that by picking her he was picking someone who had strengths and weaknesses, and those weaknesses were fully internalized well before he made the pick. That is, if you believe politicians are rational anyway.scott cunninghamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03029667343447086401noreply@blogger.com